Did America Vote for Trump Or For Change?

How will the new administration be judged?

During the industrial revolution technological innovations increased productivity, created a surplus that could be sold for profit and reduced the need for agricultural workers. These same technological developments created new efficiencies in manufacturing. Starting with the textile industry, production moved from individual jobbers to large factories organized around automation and specialization of labor. These changes resulted in a massive migration from rural America to cities and a surge in immigration as the demand for workers exceeded supply.

During the ‘gilded age’ of the late 1800’s wealth inequality soared as industrialists including John D. Rockefeller (Standard Oil), Andrew Carnegie (steel), Cornelius Vanderbilt (railroads), J. P. Morgan (banking), and Jay Gould (railroads) took advantage of the disruption and lack of regulations to capture tremendous wealth, estimated at $100’s of billions in today’s dollars. By 1890 92% of American families lived well below the poverty line while workers in the newly built factories suffered horrendous conditions, low pay, and long hours.

Turning the Tide

The first federal effort to reign in these excesses was the formation of the Interstate Commerce Commission. Created in an attempt to break up the monopoly power of the railroad industry, it provided a blueprint for future attempts at federal legislative reforms. It was followed shortly afterward by the Sherman Anti-Trust act which restricted anti competitive practices in interstate commerce.

Investigative journalists like Lincoln Stephens, Ida B Wells, Upton Sinclair, Ida M Tarbell, Jacob Riis and others began to expose the outrages and build public support for change. Labeled ‘Muckrakers’ by Theodore Roosevelt, they represented the beginning of the progressive era which inspired legislation to protect worker’s rights, increase consumer protections, and guarantee the right to unionize. The result was an explosion of progressive legislation that established the role of government as a check on economic power. Here are some examples…

• 1887 - Interstate Commerce Commission - Regulation of railroads

• 1890 - Sherman Anti-Trust Act

• 1900 - International Ladies’ Garment Workers’ Union

• 1906 - Hepburn Act - Railroad regulation

• 1906 - Pure Food and Drug Act

• 1906 - Meat Inspection Act

• 1913 - 16th Amendment (Income Tax)

• 1913 - 17th Amendment - Direct election of US Senators

• 1913 - Federal Reserve Act - Banking regulation

• 1913 - Department of Labor

• 1914 - Federal Trade Commission Act - Consumer protection

• 1916 - The Federal Workers Compensation Act - Compensation for on the job injuries

• 1920 - 19th Amendment - Women’s Suffrage

• 1935 - Social Security Act

• 1938 - Fair Labor Standards Act - Minimum wage and limits to working hours

• 1971 - Occupational Health and Safety Administration - Worker protection

By the end of the Second World War the US economy entered a golden age of progress and relative equality which ended with the election of Ronald Regan and adoption of the philosophy of supply side economics. (See “What Happened to the American Dream?”)

Did American’s Vote for Autocracy or for Change?

After 40 years of Reganomics The Biden administration’s vision was rooted in a “bottom up - middle out” philosophy of improving the lives of working people and the middle class. Although significant progress was made, American voters were dissatisfied with the rate of change and chose a candidate who promised freedom and prosperity through dominance and retribution. It’s not hard to find examples of where this leads. Experience tells us that freedom is not at the end of that path and prosperity will be reserved for those who already have it.

But do the majority of American citizens really believe that Trump and MAGA will deliver? And how many of the voters who chose the Trump/MAGA coalition understand the implications of their choice? How many chose out of frustration?

One indication is that the same voters who voted for Trump also supported progressive initiatives. Here are some examples of the outcome of ballot initiatives in states that voted for him (ref);

• Alaska, Missouri, and Nebraska passed regulations requiring employers to provide paid sick leave to workers

• Alaska and Missouri passed a $15 per hour minimum wage with increases indexed to inflation.

• Arizona rejected a proposal to reduce the minimum wage for tipped workers.

• Kentucky and Nebraska rejected ballot initiatives that would have allowed state education funding to be used to support private schools.

• Voters in Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Nevada passed ballot initiatives to protect reproductive rights and the right to an abortion.

And how likely is it that Trump and MAGA billionaires will deliver economic reforms that will reinvigorate the middle class?

The Next Two Years

During the next two years Americans can judge whether their choice for Trump has improved their lives and delivered the change that they are seeking. It seems likely that they will be disappointed. As always there will be a battle to assign blame for the failures. Joe and Kamala won’t be available, but will Trump and MAGA be held responsible in the mid-term elections? Only time will tell.

Questions

• Why did voters choose both Trump and policies that he opposes?

• What role does misinformation play in voters decision making?

• Is there any way to match the scope and reach of the MAGA media machine with a progressive alternative?

Share your thoughts in the comments.